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Despite their decline, coal-fired power plants remain major emitters of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides and the dominant emitters of sulfur dioxide in the United States. Thus, accelerating their retirements can benefit climate, air quality, and health. Legislation in at least eight states and two U.S. territories requires 100 percent carbon-free electricity by target dates ranging from 2040 to 2050 (National Conference of State Legislatures, 2021). Although nuclear and hydropower have historically been the leading sources of carbon-free electricity, high costs of new plants and retirements of old ones make it unlikely that their output will grow this decade. That leaves wind and solar power as the least-cost and fastest-growing sources of new carbon-free electricity (Energy Information Administration, 2020b; Lazard, 2020). Costs of wind and solar power have plummeted over the past decade thanks to learning-by-doing as deployments have grown (Kavlak et al., 2018; Lazard, 2020; Nemet, 2019). However, the variable nature of their output raises questions as to how reliably wind and solar can displace fossil power plants.
Texas provides a proving ground for the replacement of coal with wind and solar. Texas power plants consume more coal and natural gas and emit more carbon dioxide than those in any other state (Energy Information Administration, 2019). However, Texas also generates more wind power than any other state and has a rapidly growing solar industry. Since the state has no mandate for clean electricity, market forces dictate the competition between these sources of power.
Previous work has shown that wind and solar power are generated at complementary times, with west Texas winds blowing most strongly at night, south Texas sea breezes peaking on summer afternoons, and solar power peaking midday (Slusarewicz & Cohan, 2018). Other work has shown that coal-fired power plants in Texas contribute not only to climate change but also to air pollution responsible for several hundred premature deaths each year (Strasert et al., 2019). However, the extent to which electricity from those coal plants could be replaced by new wind and solar power deserves attention.
For ERCOT market conditions and coal power output, we focus exclusively on the year 2019, since it was the only full year of data available at the time of this analysis after several large coal plants closed in 2018. Coal plants that continued operating in 2019 are shown in Fig. 1. Power generation by resource type on a 15-min basis was obtained from the ERCOT Fuel Mix Report (ERCOT, 2021a). Hourly power demand (load) in each of eight weather regions (Fig. 2) was taken from ERCOT hourly load data archives (ERCOT, 2020b). Real-time market electricity prices in each of the eight load zone hubs were taken from ERCOT market price archives on a 15-min basis (ERCOT, 2020a).
Since our optimization ignored transmission constraints, it favored solar projects in the westernmost, sunniest portions of ERCOT (Figs. 6 and 9). Meanwhile, the optimization chose a more diverse set of wind projects, blending central and western sites, where annual capacity factors are highest with complementary southern and coastal sites. By contrast, most coal power plants are located in eastern and central Texas (Fig. 1). To quantify coal output by zone, we used Acid Rain Program data for plant-level gross coal load (EPA, 2021) to apportion net coal output data for 2019, which ERCOT provides data only on a systemwide basis (ERCOT, 2021a). As shown in Fig. 13, replacing coal with our wind and solar 10% slack scenario would produce more energy in the west, far west, south, and north zones, but less energy in the north central, coast, and south central zones, where load is highest. Thus, more power would need to be transmitted from windy and sunny areas to urban regions. Quantification of needs for new transmission capacity is beyond the scope of this study and deserves further research.
This installation is an excellent example of early full diesel engine technology of the times. By the mid-1920s, steam engine driven electric power plants were being replaced by diesel engine driven machinery in many communities. It was used for lighting, refrigerating, etc., especially to isolated areas, a time in which electrification was spreading and becoming a dependable, economic, and efficient power supply. The parent company of Fairbanks-Morse began producing engines (naphtha-burning) in 1893. These evolved to engines burning kerosene in 1900 and coal gas in 1905, then to semi-diesel engines in 1913 and to full diesel engines in 1924, with compression being raised (from 80 horsepower in 1894) to about 500 psi.
Simple and quick assembly and disassembly, complete freedom from maintenance and wear, absolutely backlash-free power transmission: RINGFEDER Locking Assemblies are friction-locked shaft-hub connections manufactured to the highest quality standards. They are suitable for the precise fastening of all types of hubs, e.g. toothed gears, running wheels and chain sprockets, levers, cam discs, belt and brake discs, slip-on gears, couplings or flanges, on shafts and axles. Compared to external clamping connections, e.g. shrink discs, locking assemblies are installed between shaft and hub. By tightening the clamping screws, inner and outer rings press themselves onto the contact surfaces of the components to be connected, thus creating a friction-fit press connection. This allows not only the highest torques but also axial and radial as well as bending loads to be transmitted reliably. Keyless RINGFEDER Locking Assemblies are the superior alternative to conventional shrink-fits, wedge, keyway or polygonal connections and offer outstanding concentricity and resistance to alternating torsion. Our locking assemblies are available to users in various standard designs and sizes as well as customised special solutions. 350c69d7ab